hrc will win as an independent?

i keep seeing people spout opinions that hillary should run as an independent, and that she'd win handily if she did so.

are these people delusional?

let's do the math, and let's do it in a pro-hillary way.

president bush's approval rating is currently ~28% (i believe that's the lowest quote i can find). let's assume everybody else (72%) will vote for a democrat. i have a hard time believing this is true, so i consider this an assumption in hillary's favor.

and let's say hillary wins the popular vote among democrats. let's say she wins it by a 60-40 split. this is more than what she received during the primaries, whether you count florida, michigan, and caucuses or not, so i consider this an assumption in hillary's favor as well.

doing the math, .72*.6 gives you a popular vote percentage of... 43% but against obama's 29 and mccain's (bush-approving) 28, that's a win, right?

***

now let's look at this realistically. there are republicans who disapprove of bush, but are still republican, and mccain, while associated with bush by party, isn't exactly a hard-core bush-ite. it's not like we've got rove or condi running here. democrats will likely not get 72% of the popular vote, regardless of how unhappy the country is with the current administration.

knowing that the republican primary ended months earlier, the turnout is understandably low, but at 20 million before idaho, the republican primary voters still outnumber those who voted for either hillary or obama. assuming hillary got over 18 million votes, she's still about 2 million short of mccain's potential base.

i understand the desire to have one's candidate be president (isn't that the point of the whole thing?). unfortunately, there are some sore losers out there who are trying to talk hillary supporters into either voting for mccain outright (out of spite?) or voting for hillary as an independent (essentially contributing to a mccain win by drawing votes from blue to red).

if you're a clinton supporter for any reason other than "she's a clinton" or "she's a woman," an obama presidency is closer to what you want than a mccain presidency. don't forget: a president's job does not include creating policy (unless you're george w bush and you decide that you're allowed to expand your job). a president approves or disapproves policy, acts as a figurehead to our country, and (and please, please take note of this), appoints people to positions. positions like, say, supreme court justices.

cut off your nose to spite your face, and you'll have to pay for it the rest of your life.